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4 February 2005: The Iraq situation and Russia
This is the most interesting analysis I've read recently. It concerns
the efforts of Russia to outmanouver the US in middle east influence.
Main themes: 1. Russian attempts at rapprochement with Israel since
the Beslan incident. 2. Signs that Putin is starting to make deals
with key Russian 'oligarchs' to counteract pro-western efforts to
remove him. 3. recent policy conflicts between Israel and US zionists.
Could there be political tendencies within Israel to reach a modus
vivendi with Russia and east Asia? Even an outside chance of this
would be horrifying to the neocons who would presumably want to
continue using the US-Israeli relationship as an anti-eurasian geopolitical
battering ram. That's why I think there are interesting implications
here. If there was some way to make Israel split with the US and
UK and ally more with Russia and eurasian powers, it could be a
remarkable turnaround. But I doubt this is very likely.
AUSCHWITZ COMMEMORATION: BUSH - THE GREAT ABSENT
by Veronica Bicer
http://iraqwar.mirror-world.ru/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=38464
The following links concern the emerging situation in Iraq. I have
not devoted myself to the details of the Iraq occupation before
now, so I am still in the process of getting up to speed. However,
I have felt compelled to take a closer look based on the various
agendas that seem to be impinging on the 9/11 Truth Movement, most
importantly the sudden disproportionate surge in anti-Saudi and
"nazi-islamofascism" hype, which fit into a larger pattern of mideast
developments.
The following quote from a discussion forum a couple months back
lays out a hypothesis concerning policy struggles and power shifts
going on in Washington concerning Iraq and the next stage of US
mideast policy. At this point, I agree with this take on things,
because it is closely in accord with the changes seen in the second
Bush administration (with the State Dept. and CIA being the current
losers):
"I believe it's the same old fight: State, CIA and the old Iraqi
National Accord (Allawi's group) composed of former Baathists, arrayed
against the Bush Pentagon, neoconservative think tanks like the
AEI and the expatriot Iraqi National Congress (Chalabi's group),
with its more more militantly anti-Sunni, pro-Western de-Baathification
agenda.
"The latest neocon plan B is the strategic jump onto the Shiite
bandwagon and use of the 'secular Shiite' Chalabi to influence the
Shiite movement that seems poised to assume control of Iraq, or
a big part of it. As far as I can tell, the neocons hope to create
a powerful, non-Khomeinist Shiite government in Iraq, a rival and
alternative to the Iranian model, made prosperous by heavy American
aid, and use it as a way to influence internal Iranian politics."
http://yglesias.typepad.com/matthew/2004/12/allawis_fall.html
Allawi faces defeat as Iraqi cleric's team leads the polls
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/story.jsp?story=607555
Question: Is the neocon plan to allow Shia gains in power in Iraq
in order to destabilize Saudi Arabia? The pro-Israeli Kurds will
help balance things in Iraq with a likely coalition government,
and current threats against Iran -- perhaps necessitating a flat-out
attack -- will keep Iran from breaking out and taking advantage
of the situation.
Stratfor: Iraq, Iran, & Saudi Arabia (3 Jun 04)
http://auto_sol.tao.ca/node/view/671
"The Saudis, having already felt the full force of American fury
-- and now trapped between them and their own radicals -- faced
another challenge. If the U.S. policy in Iraq remained on track,
the power of Iran and the Shia would surge through the region. The
Saudis had faced a challenge from the Shia right after the Khomeni
revolution in Iran. They did not enjoy it, but they did have the
full backing of the United States. Now they are in a position where
they faced an even more intense challenge, and the United States
might well stay neutral or, even worse, back the challenge. If the
Shia in Saudi Arabia rose with the backing of Iran and a Shiite-dominated
Iraq, the Saudi government would crumble.
From the Saudi point of view, they might be able to contain the
radical Islamists using traditional tribal politics and payoffs,
but facing the Wahhabis and the Shia at the same time would be impossible.
The third-phase policy of entente between the United States and
the Shiite-Iranian bloc seemed to guarantee a Shiite rising in Saudi
Arabia in the not-too-distant future."
Israelis 'using Kurds to build power base'
Gary Younge in New York
Monday June 21, 2004
http://www.guardian.co.uk/israel/Story/0,2763,1243588,00.html
Kurds 'hold balance of power' in Iraq
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/2161096e-747f-11d9-a769-00000e2511c8.html
"The Iraqi Kurds are now the "arbiters" of politics in Iraq and
can win the "big prize" of autonomy, Hoshyar Zebari, Iraq's interim
foreign minister, has said."
Deal-making begins on new Iraqi government
http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/01/news/agenda.html
"Shiite leaders contend that they have a formula for securing the
necessary two-thirds majority, through a deal with the Kurdish leadership.
But if Allawi's slate of candidates, the Iraqi List, or a coalition
that he patches together picks up just one-third of the assembly
seats, then he would be in a position to block the ascension of
the Shiite coalition to power.
"In that case, political leaders here say, Allawi could be in a
position to offer himself to the coalition as a candidate for prime
minister, or he could try to pick off members of the Shiite coalition
and cobble together a coalition for himself."
Since Allawi has lost big time, is the Shia-Kurd alliance inevitable?
Will the Kurds be allowed control of all the northern oil fields,
and the opening of a long-discussed pipeline from Mosul & Kirkuk
to Haifa, Israel?
Israel's recent steps towards more compromise and progress on a
Palestinian settlement are being used to bolster the arguments for
an independent Kurdish region:
Palestinian betrayal of the Kurds, by Alan Derschowitz
http://tinyurl.com/4rrxu
Israelis and Kurds Have Much in CommonÝ10.1.2005
By Lawrence Uniglicht
http://www.ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2005/1/israel1.htm
Russia puts up a fight:
Iran reports defence ties with Russia
http://www.menewsline.com/stories/2005/february/02_03_1.html
Russia to build & launch Iranian satellites
http://www.spacetoday.net/Summary/2773
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