22 February 2005: Shias and Saudis

In my previous comments on the Iraq election, I speculated that one of the reasons that the US would desire a stronger Shia presence in Iraq would be to put more pressure on Saudi Arabia and shape political change there. Looking through recent emails, I found an article delving into this::

SAN FRANCISCO, Dec 27: A new study of the Rand Corporation - a leading US think tank - advocates that Sunni, Shia and Arab, non-Arab divides should be exploited to promote the US policy objectives in the Muslim world.

One of the primary objective of the study was to "identify the key cleavages and fault lines among sectarian, ethnic, regional, and national lines and to assess how these cleavages generate challenges and opportunities for the United States."

The Study pointed out that the majority of the world's Muslims are Sunni, but a significant minority, about 15 per cent of the global Muslim population, are Shias. It went on to say that the expectations of Iraqi Shia for a greater say in the governance of their country presents an opportunity for the United States to align its policy with Shia aspirations for greater freedom of religious and political expression, in Iraq and elsewhere.

The study maintained that with the moves toward rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh, there are reports that Saudi Arabia's Shias are now turning from Iran and placing their hopes on the United States.

It believes that a Shia government in Iraq will increase their ability to help their brethren in Saudi Arabia. "Such expectations could present an opportunity for the United States to align its policy with Shia aspirations for greater freedom of religious and political expression and a say in their own affairs in countries controlled by others." [...]
http://www.iraq-war.ru/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=34822

This is something to keep in mind in light of "get the Saudis" spin that continues to be directed at 9/11-related issues, and which has been noticably ramping up again lately.